February 2025

“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” - F. Scott Fitzgerald

The new administration has hit the ground running and is taking action at breakneck speed. That is an observation I am getting from people of all political persuasions. When asked what candidate or political position the capital markets would prefer, you have often heard me say that the market prefers gridlock. As investors we like gridlock, because it slows down the rate of change, giving us more time to digest and prepare for the changes coming our way.

We don’t have that right now. My schedule and activity level since mid-January has been very busy to keep up with the changes. More specifically we research how those changes might impact your portfolio holdings or your overall plan and then to make and recommend adjustments accordingly.

Our entire team has been on the phone with many of you who are also trying to understand the changes and to comfort those who need comforting. Look around. It is always a great reminder for me that while some people are pleased with the change in government others are suffering in various states of despair. I say look around, because it may be your neighbor who needs either a hug or a high five, and both are legitimate.

We at Collins and Krank have the luxury of seeing it from both sides, as our clients tell us what’s on their minds. If you are concerned about the current changes, I want you to know that after the last election many of your neighbors were calling us concerned how that administration was going to ruin everything. Our advice now is the same as it was to those clients then. Don’t worry, we got this. Stick to the plan.

People hear something in the media, or worse, social media, and call us in a state of dismay. Most of the time the information is just wrong. Many times, it is a blatant falsity built on a shred of truth. In fact, that is why I started writing Brien’s Bits in the first place. One great source of factual information about the current happenings in DC comes from our own Ed Mills. You can read the commentary of Mr. Mills in our quarterly WorthWhile publication. You can also find much of his latest work on our website. Brian Wesbury is another great source that we often include in this packet. Getting the real facts can go a long way toward calming your nerves and letting you sleep at night. It may even eliminate the “What ifs.”

When people call our team and ask or blurt out challengingly, “What if the terrible and unimaginable thing happens?” somebody on our team will usually say, we have planned for this. Stick with the plan.

We mean it. When we are planning for you, we look at your wishes and your goals. We look at your needs and examine all the resources you have to meet those needs. We do the math to see if anything may be out of alignment or unrealistic. We then give you a score, so you understand whether you can do all those things we talked about without running out of money.

What many forget is that we are doing several iterations of your plan. This is not a “one and done.” It is a living plan, specifically tailored to you. It is adjusting to the current market situation every single day. We alter the plan, changing the scenario and run it again and again. We run hundreds of permutations to come up with your score. So, when you are thinking “What if!” we can confidently tell you we planned for this.

Remember, we are long-term, goal-focused, plan-driven investors. Our core investment policy is to invest in broadly diversified portfolios of high-quality businesses.

We believe that the economy cannot be consistently forecast, nor the markets consistently timed. We conclude from this that the only practical way to capture the premium long-term return of equities is to ride out their frequent, sometimes significant but historically always temporary declines.

We do not react to economic or political market events. As long as your long-term goals remain unchanged, so will our plan for the achievement of those goals. Stick to the plan!

There are going to be some good things that come out of the current administration. There always are. There are going to be some bad things; there always are. We will manage and make adjustments to the strategies accordingly. Hang in there, we got this, stick to the plan. Call if you need to talk.

Have a super day!

Sincerely,

Brien Krank
Financial Advisor, RJFS
Senior Portfolio Manager
Managing Partner – Collins and Krank

Hear me on the radio Wednesday mornings from 7:35 to 7:55 on 1100am The Flag and 970am WDAY.

Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax advice. You should discuss any tax matters with the appropriate professional.

Opinions expressed are those of Brien Krank or of the author in the attached articles and not necessarily those of Raymond James. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is not guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Individual investor’s results will vary. Raymond James is not affiliated with Nick Murray, Federated Hermes, or First Trust.